Currency and Financial Markets ECB

Comment on the latest ECB council meeting

The ECB is acting wisely by resisting pressure for a faster exit from QE. Continuity and reliability are two important elements of the ECB’s policy stance to avoid a taper tantrum and excessive market volatility. I am confident that the economic recovery of the euro area will allow the ECB to end its QE program in September 2018. But it is an illusion to expect a fast rise in interest rates after the end of QE. The low interest rate environment is likely to persist for several more years. Low core inflation and the vulnerability of the banking system remain two key risks for the ECB. The ECB’s new projections indicate that the ECB will meet its inflation objective again only in 2020. Concerns in Germany about an overheating of the economy and excessive inflationary are unfounded. Inflation even in Germany will remain well below the ECB’s 2% inflation objective.

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