An important aspect, that has been widely ignored in the debate about the consequences of a Brexit, is the impact on ECB monetary policy. Lower oil prices and a weaker economy in the euro zone and in Germany are likely to increase deflationary pressures further. As a consequence, the ECB is likely to extend its expansionary monetary policy path further into the future. The Brexit will most likely imply a longer period of zero interest rates for the euro area. Continue Reading →
The Brexit decision is a catastrophe for all Europeans. The economic costs will be enormous for all of Europe. Britain could slide back into recession. We at DIW Belin expect a 0.5 percentage points lower economic growth in Germany in 2017 as a result of lower German exports to the UK alone. The risk is highest for countries such as Italy, which are vulnerable and could slide even deeper into the financial crisis.
I expect major volatility in financial markets in the short-term and a slowdown in the global economy over the medium-term, while a renewed intensification of the financial crisis is likely. Continue Reading →
The German constitutional court took a wise decision, but which is effectively a reversal of its earlier decision of January 2014. The court now accepts the authority and the decision by the European Court of Justice on the ECB’s OMT program of 2015. The backing down of the German constitutional court is a smart move, as it would inevitably have lost the battle against the European Court of Justice on issues of European law. Continue Reading →
The window of opportunity to complete the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union is closing quickly. National elections will be held this year and next in the US, France, and Germany, and the campaigns will play out in an environment that is increasingly hostile to international agreements in any form. The biggest risk might come from the least likely source: Germany, an export powerhouse. Continue Reading →
The ECB has signaled that low inflation is likely to persist even longer than previously feared. The new projections by the ECB have increased the probability of an extension of QE beyond March 2017. The ECB is putting great hopes into its new liquidity program for banks in order to improve credit to the private sector, strengthen the economy and thereby raise the inflation rate.
A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.
The question is not whether debt relief is needed, but how and when it will take place.
Almost one year after the Greek debt drama, which almost ended with Greece’s exit from the eurozone, the conflict between the Greek government and its European partners is again heating up. The bad news is that progress on Greek reforms is slow and painful. The good news is that as Greece has become increasingly isolated, the Greek crisis no longer seems a major threat to economic or political stability in the rest of Europe. Continue Reading →
Nowhere in Europe are income, wealth and opportunities as unequally distributed as in Germany. “Germany’s social market economy no longer exists”, says Marcel Fratzscher from the German Institute for Economic Research.
“With its decision, the ECB has signalled the continuation of its expansionary monetary policy. The ECB policy of low interest rates will not end soon. I expect interest rates to remain close to zero for another 3 to 4 years. Continue Reading →
In the latest Spotlight, DIW President Marcel Fratzscher explains why helicopter money offers the possibility to “circumvent” the banking system and make loans and funding directly available to households and private companies, which would help the ECB to fulfill their price stability mandate again.
Mr. Fratzscher, there are concerns about an overall lack of investment in Germany. Is the problem more urgent in the public sector or in the private sector? The investment gap exists in both the public and private sector. Three years ago, we calculated that Germany’s investment gap amounts to roughly 75 billion euros per year. The investment gap has also been confirmed by other studies. The problem is definitely more urgent in the private sector. Continue Reading →