Perhaps the greatest damage caused by the confrontation with Greece is a general loss of confidence. If we want to get Greece back to growth, people, companies and investors have to regain confidence in the viability of the country. For this to work, a legitimate and competent government as well as an efficient administration and judiciary are essential. Yet the issue of debt sustainability is … [continue reading]Read more
The ECB has sent a strong signal of trust in the implementation of a third program by increasing its ELA support to Greek banks. The ECB underlines that it considers Greek banks fundamentally solvent. Mr. Draghi is optimistic that a bridge financing will be in place to cover Greek repayments to the ECB on 20 July.… [continue reading]Read more
This article was published on ft.com on June 29, 2015.
The breakdown of negotiations on Greece has come as a shock. Berlin and other European capitals look in disbelief at the Greek government’s resolve to inflict huge economic and financial damage on its own country and its citizens […] read full article on ft.com… [continue reading]Read more
The decision by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is an overwhelming success for the European Central Bank (ECB). The OMT program has been ruled to be fully consistent with European law. The ruling means that the ECB has an additional, important monetary policy instrument to fight the European crisis. It implies that the OMT program has not become superfluous with the start of the current QE program of the ECB. On the contrary, a Grexit and renewed intensification of … [continue reading]Read more
Comment on the ECB Monetary Policy Decisions (5 March 2015):
The new ECB projections for growth and the return to price stability are very optimistic. The ECB projections are based on probably too optimistic expectations about the effectiveness of its QE programme. The weak euro and the decline in government bond yields over the past few months are largely the result of the high expectations about the QE programme. It is unlikely that the QE programme will continue to exert … [continue reading]Read more
The decision of the ECB sends a strong and convincing argument that it is determined to pursue its mandate of price stability. The programme constitutes a necessary step to help end the European crisis. We don’t have to like the programme, but we should support it to give Europe a perspective for the future.
The size of the purchase programme sends a credible signal to financial markets, also as it exceeds expectations. The ECB rightly underlines the urgent responsibility of … [continue reading]Read more
As the ECB is likely to announce a government bond purchase programme on January 22, the opposition in Germany is growing. The potential election of a government in Greece with its intention to restructure debt towards its official creditors puts the upcoming ECB’s decision under even greater scrutiny. The fact that the ECB has … [continue reading]Read more
The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was long overdue. Its exchange rate policy hat protected Swiss exporters and helped their competitiveness through a weaker Swiss franc. But this policy could prove a very expensive mistake, because the Swiss franc will had to appreciate against the euro in the foreseeable future. The valuation losses for the DNB could therefore become substantial. The timing of the decision by the SNB is certainly not a coincidence. The expectations of an ECB … [continue reading]Read more
Statement on the recommendation of the ECJ advocate general Cruz Villalón on bond purchasing of the ECB
The recommendation of the advocate general of the ECJ is an overwhelming success for the European Central Bank (ECB). Such a strong and overwhelming support for the ECB is surprising and could not have been expected. The decision finds the OMT program to constitute a legal instrument of monetary policy that pursues a legitimate objective. The recommendation is in clear contradiction to the … [continue reading]Read more